World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update - General Studies

World Economic Outlook (WEO) 
Update - HIMALAI IAS

Is the Tide Rising?

Global activity strengthened during the second half of 2013, as anticipated in the October 2013 World Economic Outlook (WEO). Activity is expected to improve further in 2014–15, largely on account of recovery in the advanced economies. Global growth is now projected to be slightly higher in 2014, at around 3.7 percent, rising to 3.9 percent in 2015, a broadly unchanged outlook from the October 2013 WEO. But downward revisions to growth forecasts in some economies highlight continued fragilities, and downside risks remain. In advanced economies, output gaps generally remain large and, given the risks, the monetary policy stance should stay accommodative while fiscal consolidation continues. In many emerging market and developing economies, stronger external demand from advanced economies will lift growth, although domestic weaknesses remain a concern. Some economies may have room for monetary policy support. In many others, output is close to potential, suggesting that growth declines partly reflect structural factors or a cyclical cooling and that the main policy approach for raising growth must be to push ahead with structural reform. In some economies, there is a need to manage vulnerabilities associated with weakening credit quality and larger capital outflows.

Is the Tide Rising?

Global activity and world trade picked up in the second half of 2013. Recent data even suggest that global growth during this period was somewhat stronger than anticipated in the October 2013 WEO. Final demand in advanced economies expanded broadly as expected—much of the upward surprise in growth is due to higher inventory demand. In emerging market economies, an export rebound was the main driver behind better activity, while domestic demand generally remained subdued, except in China.

Financial conditions in advanced economies have eased since the release of the October 2013 WEO—with little change since the announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve on December 18 that it will begin tapering its quantitative easing measures this month. This includes further declines in risk premiums on government debt of crisis-hit euro area economies. In emerging market economies, however, financial conditions have remained tighter following the surprise U.S. tapering announcements in May 2013, notwithstanding fairly resilient capital flows. Equity prices have not fully recovered, many sovereign bond yields have edged up, and some currencies have been under pressure.

Turning to projections, growth in the United States is expected to be 2.8 percent in 2014, up from 1.9 percent in 2013. Following upward surprises to inventories in the second half of 2013, the pickup in 2014 will be carried by final domestic demand, supported in part by a reduction in the fiscal drag as a result of the recent budget agreement. But the latter also implies a tighter projected fiscal stance in 2015 (as the recent budget agreement implies that most of the sequester cuts will remain in place in FY2015, instead of being reversed as assumed in the October 2013 WEO), and growth is now projected at 3 percent for 2015 (3.4 percent in October 2013).

The euro area is turning the corner from recession to recovery. Growth is projected to strengthen to 1 percent in 2014 and 1.4 percent in 2015, but the recovery will be uneven. The pickup will generally be more modest in economies under stress, despite some upward revisions including Spain. High debt, both public and private, and financial fragmentation will hold back domestic demand, while exports should further contribute to growth. Elsewhere in Europe, activity in the United Kingdom has been buoyed by easier credit conditions and increased confidence. Growth is expected to average 2¼ percent in 2014–15, but economic slack will remain high.  

In Japan, growth is now expected to slow more gradually compared with October 2013 WEO projections. Temporary fiscal stimulus should partly offset the drag from the consumption tax increase in early 2014. As a result, annual growth is expected to remain broadly unchanged at 1.7 percent in 2014, given carryover effects, before moderating to 1 percent in 2015.

Overall, growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to increase to 5.1 percent in 2014 and to 5.4 percent in 2015. Growth in Chinarebounded strongly in the second half of 2013, due largely to an acceleration in investment. This surge is expected to be temporary, in part because of policy measures aimed at slowing credit growth and raising the cost of capital. Growth is thus expected to moderate slightly to around 7½ percent in 2014–15. Growth in India picked up after a favorable monsoon season and higher export growth and is expected to firm further on stronger structural policies supporting investment. Many other emerging market and developing economies have started to benefit from stronger external demand in advanced economies and China. In many, however, domestic demand has remained weaker than expected. This reflects to varying degrees, tighter financial conditions and policy stances since mid-2013, as well as policy or political uncertainty and bottlenecks, with the latter weighing on investment in particular. As a result, growth in 2013 or 2014 has been revised downward compared to the October 2013 WEO forecasts, including in Brazil and Russia. Downward revisions to growth in 2014 in the Middle East and North Africa region, and upward revisions in 2015, mainly reflect expectations that the rebound in oil output in Libya after outages in 2013 will proceed at a slower pace.

In sum, global growth is projected to increase from 3 percent in 2013 to 3.7 percent in 2014 and 3.9 percent in 2015.

Not yet out of the woods

Turning to risks to the forecast, downside risks—old ones discussed in the October 2013 WEO and new ones—remain. Among new ones, risks to activity associated with very low  inflation in advanced economies, especially the euro area, have come to the fore. With inflation likely to remain below target for some time, longer-term inflation expectations might drift down. This raises the risks of lower-than-expected inflation, which increases real debt burdens, and of premature real interest rate increases, as monetary policy is constrained in lowering nominal interest rates. It also raises the likelihood of deflation in the event of adverse shocks to activity.

Downside risks to financial stability persist. Corporate leverage has risen, accompanied in many emerging market economies by increased exposures to foreign currency liabilities. In a number of markets, including several emerging markets, asset valuations could come under pressure if interest rates rose more than expected and adversely affected investor sentiment.

In emerging market economies, increased financial market and capital flow volatility remain a concern given that the Fed will start tapering in early 2014. The responses to the related December announcement have been relatively muted in most economies, possibly helped by the Fed’s policy communication and re-calibration (including revisions to forward guidance). Nevertheless, portfolio shifts and some capital outflows are likely with Fed tapering. When combined with domestic weaknesses, the result could be sharper capital outflows and exchange rate adjustments.

Turning to policies, ensuring robust growth and managing vulnerabilities remain global priorities despite the expected strengthening of activity.

In advanced economies, policy priorities remain broadly those discussed in the October 2013 WEO. With prospects improving, however, it will be critical to avoid a premature withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation, including in the United States, as output gaps are still large while inflation is low and fiscal consolidation continues. Stronger growth is needed to complete balance sheet repair after the crisis and to lower related legacy risks. In the euro area, the European Central Bank (ECB) will need to consider additional measures toward this end. Measures such as longer-term liquidity provision, including targeted lending, would strengthen demand and reduce financial market fragmentation. Repairing bank balance sheets through the Balance Sheet Assessment exercise and recapitalizing weak banks and completing the Banking Union by unifying both supervision and crisis resolution will be essential for confidence to improve, for credit to revive, and to sever the link between sovereigns and banks. More structural reforms are needed to lift investment and prospects.

In emerging market and developing economies, recent developments highlight the need to manage the risks of potential capital flow reversals. Economies with domestic weaknesses and partly related external current account deficits appear particularly exposed. Exchange rates should be allowed to depreciate in response to deteriorating external funding conditions. When there are constraints on exchange rate adjustment —because of balance sheet mismatches and other financial fragilities, or large pass-through to inflation because of monetary policy frameworks that lack transparency or consistency in their implementation— policymakers might need to consider a combination of tightening macroeconomic policies and stronger regulatory and supervisory policy efforts. In China, the recent rebound highlights that investment remains the key driver in growth dynamics. More progress is required on rebalancing domestic demand from investment to consumption to effectively contain the risks to growth and financial stability from over investment.

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Difference between a Comet & a Meteor - General Studies HIMALAI IAS

HIMALAI IAS - DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COMET AND A METEOR

‘Name That Space Rock’ — describes the difference between all those flying rocks from space. Credit and copyright: Tim Lillis. Used by permission.

With all the various space rocks flying by and into Earth last Friday, perhaps you’ve been wondering about the correct terminology, since a rock from space has different names depending on what it is made of and where it is.

Infographics artist Tim Lillis has put together a primer of sorts, in the form of an infographic, describing the different between a comet, asteroid, meteoroid, meteor and meteorite.

Asteroids are generally larger chunks of rock that come from the asteroid belt located between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. Sometimes their orbits get perturbed or altered and some asteroids end up coming closer to the Sun, and therefore closer to Earth. 

Comets are much like asteroids, but might have a more ice, methane, ammonia, and other compounds that develop a fuzzy, cloud-like shell called a coma – as well as a tail — when it gets closer to the Sun. Comets are thought to originate from two different sources: Long-period comets (those which take more than 200 years to complete an orbit around the Sun) originate from the Oort Cloud. Short-period comets (those which take less than 200 years to complete an orbit around the Sun) originate from the Kuiper Belt.

Space debris smaller than an asteroid are called meteoroids. A meteoroid is a piece of interplanetary matter that is smaller than a kilometer and frequently only millimeters in size. Most meteoroids that enter the Earth’s atmosphere are so small that they vaporize completely and never reach the planet’s surface. And when they do enter Earth’s atmosphere, they gain a different name:

Meteors. Another name commonly used for a meteor is a shooting star. A meteor is the flash of light that we see in the night sky when a small chunk of interplanetary debris burns up as it passes through our atmosphere. “Meteor” refers to the flash of light caused by the debris, not the debris itself.

If any part of a meteoroid survives the fall through the atmosphere and lands on Earth, it is called a meteorite. Although the vast majority of meteorites are very small, their size can range from about a fraction of a gram (the size of a pebble) to 100 kilograms (220 lbs) or more (the size of a huge, life-destroying boulder).

Solar System & Its Bodies Motions - General Studies-HIMALAI IAS

HIMALAI IAS - GEOGRAPHY OF INDIA

The Solar System
Pictures & Information on the Sun, Moon & Eight Planets
(Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune)

Information on our Solar System

There are now officially only eight planets in our solar system (in 2006 the International Astronomical Union changed the definition of 'planet' so that Pluto no longer qualifies).
The Solar System consists of the Sun and the other celestial objects gravitationally bound to it: eight planets, their 165 known moons, three dwarf planets (including Pluto) and their four known moons, and billions of small bodies (which includes asteroids, comets, meteoroids).

Our Solar System - Eight planets orbit the Sun

In order of their distances from the Sun, the planets are Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. Six of the eight planets are in turn orbited by moons. All the planets except Earth are named after gods and goddesses from Greco-Roman mythology.

The Sun

The Sun is by far the largest object in the solar system. It is the star at the center of the Solar System. The Earth and other matter (including other planets, asteroids, meteoroids, comets and dust) orbit the Sun. Energy from the Sun (sunlight) supports almost all life on Earth via photosynthesis, and drives the Earth's climate and weather.

The Sun contains more than 99.8% of the total mass of the Solar System (Jupiter contains most of the rest). At present, the mass of the Sun is about 70% hydrogen, 28% helium by mass, other metals amount to less than 2%. This changes slowly over time as the Sun converts hydrogen to helium in its core.

The Sun's energy output (3.86e33 ergs/second or 386 billion billion megawatts) is produced by nuclear fusion reactions. As it travels out toward the surface, the energy is continuously absorbed and re-emitted at lower and lower temperatures so that by the time it reaches the surface, it is primarily visible light.

Mercury

Mercury is the innermost and smallest planet in the solar system, orbiting the Sun once every 88 days. It can only be seen in morning or evening twilight.
Physically, Mercury is similar in appearance to the Moon as it is heavily cratered. It has no natural satellites and no substantial atmosphere. The planet has a large iron core which generates a magnetic field about 0.1% as strong as that of the Earth.
Mercury is one of the four terrestrial planets, being a rocky body like the Earth. It consists of approximately 70% metallic and 30% silicate material. The density of the planet is the second-highest in the solar system at 5.43 g/cm³, only slightly less than Earth’s density.

Venus

Venus is the second planet from the Sun and the sixth largest. Venus' orbit is the most circular of that of any planet, with an eccentricity of less than 1%.
Venus (Greek: Aphrodite; Babylonian: Ishtar) is the goddess of love and beauty. The planet is so named probably because it is the brightest of the planets known to the ancients.
The phases of Venus can be viewed with a telescope from Earth. Galileo's observation of this phenomenon was important evidence in favor of Copernicus's heliocentric theory of the solar system.
Venus' rotation is very slow (243 Earth days per Venus day). In addition, the periods of Venus' rotation and of its orbit are synchronized such that it always presents the same face toward Earth when the two planets are at their closest approach.
Venus is sometimes regarded as Earth's sister planet. In some ways they are very similar:
* Venus is only slightly smaller than Earth (95% of Earth's diameter, 80% of Earth's mass).
* Both have few craters indicating relatively young surfaces.
* Their densities and chemical compositions are similar.

Earth

Earth is the third planet from the Sun and the fifth largest. Home to the human species, it is also referred to as "Planet Earth", "Gaia", "Terra", and "the World".
71% of the Earth's surface is covered with water. The Earth is the first planet known to have liquid water on the surface and is the only place in the universe known to harbor life. The heat capacity of the oceans is also very important in keeping the Earth's temperature relatively stable.
The Earth formed around 4.57 billion years ago. At present, the Earth orbits the Sun once for every 366.26 times it rotates about its axis (which is equal to 365.26 solar days). The Earth's axis of rotation is tilted 23.5° (away from the perpendicular to its orbital plane), producing seasonal variations on the planet's surface.
The Earth is divided into several layers which have distinct chemical and seismic properties. The crust varies considerably in thickness, it is thinner under the oceans, thicker under the continents. Unlike the other terrestrial planets, Earth's crust is divided into several separate solid plates which float around independently on top of the hot mantle below.
The Earth's atmosphere is 77% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, with traces of argon, carbon dioxide and water. Earth has a magnetic field that, together with a primarily nitrogen-oxygen atmosphere, protects the surface from radiation that is harmful to life.

Mercury, Venus, Earth & Mars

The Earth's Moon

The Moon makes a complete orbit around the Earth every 27.3 days, and the periodic variations in the geometry of the Earth - Moon - Sun system are responsible for the lunar phases that repeat every 29.5 days. The gravitational attraction, and the centrifugal forces generated by the rotation of the Moon and Earth around a common axis, the barycentre, is largely responsible for the tides on Earth.
The Moon is the only celestial body that humans have travelled to and landed on. The US Apollo program has achieved the first (and only) manned missions to date, resulting in six landings between 1969 and 1972.

Phases of the Earth's Moon

The Lunar phase refers to the appearance of the illuminated portion of the Moon as seen by an observer on Earth. The Moon exhibits different phases as the relative geometry of the Sun, Earth and Moon change, appearing as a full moon when the Sun and Moon are on opposite sides of the Earth, and becoming invisible as a new moon (also named dark moon) when they are on the same side.

Lunar phases of the moon - A full moon is when the sun and moon are on opposite sides of the Earth

Mars

Mars is the fourth planet from the Sun in the Solar System. The planet is named after Mars, the Roman god of war. It is also referred to as the "Red Planet" because of its reddish appearance as seen from Earth.
Mars has a thin atmosphere and some of the most varied and interesting terrain of any of the terrestrial planets. It is the site of Olympus Mons, the highest known mountain in the solar system, and of Valles Marineris, the largest canyon. In addition to its geographical features, Mars’ rotational period and seasonal cycles are likewise similar to those of the Earth.
Of all the planets in our solar system, Mars is the most likely, other than Earth, to harbor liquid water, and perhaps life.
Mars can be seen from Earth with the naked eye, a brightness surpassed only by Venus, the Moon, and the Sun (and at times Jupiter).

Jupiter

Jupiter is the fifth planet from the Sun and by far the largest. Jupiter is more than twice as massive as all the other planets combined (the mass of Jupiter is 318 times that of Earth).
Jupiter is the fourth brightest object in the sky (after the Sun, the Moon and Venus).
In 1610 Galileo first pointed a telescope at the sky and discovered Jupiter's four moons Io, Europa, Ganymede and Callisto (now known as the Galilean moons) and recorded their motions back and forth around Jupiter. This was the first discovery of a center of motion not apparently centered on the Earth. It was a major point in favor of Copernicus's heliocentric theory of the motions of the planets.
Jupiter, along with Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, is classified as a gas giant. It is not primarily composed of solid matter but is 93% hydrogen and 7% helium; it may also have a rocky core of heavier elements. Because of its rapid rotation the planet is an oblate spheroid (it possesses a slight but noticeable bulge around the equator).

Saturn

Saturn is the sixth planet from the Sun and the second largest.
Galileo was the first to observe it with a telescope in 1610; he noted its odd appearance but was confused by it. Early observations of Saturn were complicated by the fact that the Earth passes through the plane of Saturn's rings every few years as Saturn moves in its orbit. A low resolution image of Saturn therefore changes drastically. It was not until 1659 that Christiaan Huygens correctly inferred the geometry of the rings.
Like Jupiter, Saturn is about 75% hydrogen and 25% helium with traces of water, methane, ammonia and "rock".
Two prominent rings (A and B) and one faint ring (C) can be seen from the Earth. Though they look continuous from the Earth, the rings are actually composed of innumerable small particles each in an independent orbit. They range in size from a centimeter or so to several meters. The rings are extraordinarily thin: though they're 250,000 km or more in diameter they're less than one kilometer thick. The ring particles seem to be composed primarily of water ice, but they may also include rocky particles with icy coatings.

The rings of Saturn

When it is in the nighttime sky, Saturn is easily visible to the unaided eye. Though it is not nearly as bright as Jupiter, it is easy to identify as a planet because it doesn't 'twinkle' like the stars do. The rings and the larger satellites are visible with a small astronomical telescope.

Uranus

Uranus named after the Greek god of the sky, is the seventh planet from the Sun. It is a gas giant, the third largest by diameter and fourth largest by mass.
Uranus, the first planet discovered in modern times, was discovered by William Herschel while systematically searching the sky with his telescope on March 13, 1781.
Most of the planets spin on an axis nearly perpendicular to the plane of the ecliptic but Uranus' axis is almost parallel to the ecliptic. At the time of Voyager 2's passage, Uranus' south pole was pointed almost directly at the Sun. This results in the odd fact that Uranus' polar regions receive more energy input from the Sun than do its equatorial regions. Uranus is nevertheless hotter at its equator than at its poles.
Uranus is composed primarily of rock and various ices, with only about 15% hydrogen and a little helium. Its atmosphere is about 83% hydrogen, 15% helium and 2% methane.
Uranus' blue color is the result of absorption of red light by methane in the upper atmosphere. There may be colored bands like Jupiter's but they are hidden from view by the overlaying methane layer.
Like the other gas planets, Uranus has rings. Like Jupiter's, they are very dark but like Saturn's they are composed of fairly large particles ranging up to 10 meters in diameter in addition to fine dust. There are 11 known rings, all very faint;

Neptune

Neptune is the eighth and farthest known planet from the Sun in the Solar System. It is the fourth largest planet by diameter and the third largest by mass; 17 times the mass of Earth.
The planet is named after the Roman god of the sea.
Neptune's atmosphere is primarily composed of hydrogen and helium, with traces of methane that account for the planet's blue appearance. Neptune's blue colour is much more vivid than that of Uranus, which has a similar amount of methane, so an unknown component is presumed to cause Neptune's intense colour.
Neptune's temperature at its cloud tops is usually close to -218 °C, one of the coldest in the solar system, due to its long distance from the sun. However, Neptune's centre is about 7,000 °C (13,000 °F), hotter than the sun's surface. This is due to extremely hot gases and rock in the center.
After the discovery of Uranus, it was noticed that its orbit was not as it should be in accordance with Newton's laws. It was therefore predicted that another more distant planet must be perturbing Uranus' orbit. Neptune was first observed by Galle and d'Arrest on 1846 Sept 23 from mathematical calculations.

Pluto

Poor Pluto is no longer considered a planet in our solar system. Pluto orbits beyond the orbit of Neptune. It is much smaller than any of the official planets and now classified as a "dwarf planet".

Pluto (on the left) compared in size to the Earth In Roman mythology, Pluto (Greek: Hades) is the god of the underworld.

Pluto was discovered in 1930 by accident. Calculations which later turned out to be in error had predicted a planet beyond Neptune, based on the motions of Uranus and Neptune. Not knowing of the error, Clyde W. Tombaugh at Lowell Observatory in Arizona did a very careful sky survey which turned up Pluto. After the discovery of Pluto, it was quickly determined that Pluto was too small to account for the discrepancies in the orbits of the other planets. The search for Planet X continued but nothing was found.

Pluto's orbit is highly eccentric. At times it is closer to the Sun than Neptune (as it was from January 1979 thru February 11 1999). Pluto rotates in the opposite direction from most of the other planets.

Pluto's composition is unknown, but its density (about 2 gm/cm3) indicates that it is probably a mixture of 70% rock and 30% water ice much like Triton

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British Policy towards Tibet End of 19th Century - General Studies - HIMALAI IAS

HIMALAI IAS - GS - HISTORY OF MODERN INDIA & CULTURE - BRITISH POLICY TOWARDS TIBET-LORD CURZON VICEROALTY

Tibet Facts 11

British Relations With Tibet:

Discussion of the official British position on Tibet and the issue of independence.

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While current British foreign policy on Tibet includes pressing the Chinese Government on human rights abuses, overall Britain takes a soft approach due to considerations such as the future of Hong Kong and the strong desire for profitable trade with China. The British Government refuses to address the question of Tibet's status or to discuss the issue of Tibetan independence, claiming this is "not a realistic option"; an expedient approach based on realpolitik rather than one of principle or consistency.

Current British Position

The current British position on Tibet is described in a policy statement of January 1994, which begins: "Successive British Governments have consistently regarded Tibet as autonomous, although we recognise the special position of the Chinese there" ('Government Policy on Tibet', a Statement from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Jan 1994). The statement continues: "Independence for Tibet is not a realistic option. Tibet has never been internationally recognised as an independent state, and no state regards Tibet as independent" ('Government Policy on Tibet').

In fact, Britain did officially regard Tibet as being de facto independent for much of the first half of the 20th century -from a Tibetan declaration of independence in 1912 until the Chinese invasion and occupation of 194950. British representatives were stationed in Tibet from 1904 to 1947 to liaise with the Tibetan Government.

The Government now believes there is a pressing need for dialogue without preconditions between the Chinese authorities and the Tibetan people. (To date, Beijing has argued that Tibetan independence is not open to discussion.) However, Britain has done little to encourage the Chinese to come to the negotiating table, beyond "reminding" them of the British position. Furthermore, pressing for talks without preconditions while at the same time declaring "independence is not a realistic option" is surely self-defeating.

The Government does not feel that the Dalai Lama has a political role, and his visits to Britain are held to have been purely of a "private and religious" nature. Moreover, the British authorities have declared they "have no formal dealings with the Dalai Lama's self proclaimed Government-in-Exile, which is not recognised by any government." (`Government Policy on Tibet').

Tibet Support Group UK believes that the current British position on Tibet not only contains contradictions which weaken the possible impact and effectiveness of British pressure, but also refutes and redefines the nature of Britain's historical relations with Tibet. TSG UK therefore recommends that the British Government:

Confirm its past recognition of Tibet as being a de facto independent state.

Agree that it is for the Tibetan people to decide whether or not independence for Tibet is a "realistic option".

Begin formal and open relations with the democratically elected Tibetan Government-in-Exile.

Relations up to 1950

When the British ruled India, their interest in Tibet was to exclude the influence of any other state that might disturb India's Himalayan frontier, while becoming involved in Tibet as little as possible themselves. The ways of pursuing these objectives varied at different times.

In the 19th century, Britain accepted the myth that Tibet was in a vague way part of the Chinese Empire, since this might help to exclude Russian influence. The Tibetans also used the myth to help them exclude influences from India that might threaten their culture and perhaps their integrity. In fact, China's influence in Tibet, which for a short time at the end of the 18th century was effective, vanished during the 19th century. In the 1880s and 1890s, British attempts to settle minor issues of trade and frontier alignment by treaties with China proved infructous, because the Tibetans would not recognise these treaties. Lord Curzon, as Viceroy of India, therefore tried to establish direct contact with the 13th Dalai Lama, who most unwisely refused to receive his correspondence. This deadlock became serious when Curzon believed unreliable information suggesting that Russia had obtained some influence in Lhasa. So the British Government reluctantly approved a small military expedition under Francis Younghusband, which fought its way to Lhasa in 1904.

This inauspicious start in fact established good relations with Tibet, which were subsequently maintained. The Lhasa Convention of 1904 settled many outstanding issues. But a new Liberal Government in London went full circle in 1906, influenced partly by dislike of Curzon's imperialism and partly by moves then afoot, prompted by fear of Germany, for the formation of an entente between France, Britain and Russia. The Lhasa Convention was re-negotiated with China in 1906, and in 1907 an Anglo-Russian agreement, covering Persia and Afghanistan as well as Tibet, provided that both parties would deal with Tibet only through China.

In the vacuum thus created, the Chinese invaded Tibet in 1906, and the Dalai Lama fled to India in 1910. The Chinese then started to infiltrate into Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and the tribal areas to the north of Assam. This set alarm bells ringing in Simla and London: what seemed to be needed was a buffer state against China as well as Russia. This was achieved when the Chinese emperor was deposed in 1911, thus breaking the personal link between the Dalai Lama and the Manchu Dynasty; when the Chinese troops in Tibet mutinied and were evacuated through India; and when the Dalai Lama, back in Lhasa, declared Tibet's independence in 1912.

At a conference in Simla in 1914, British, Chinese and Tibetan representatives negotiated the Simla Convention, providing for Tibetan autonomy with Chinese suzerainty, and a complicated and unsatisfactory arrangement about the Sino-Tibetan boundary. The Chinese withheld acceptance of this convention. They were accordingly told that Britain and Tibet would regard it as binding between themselves but that China would have no rights under it. In addition, agreements were concluded at Simla between Britain and Tibet (the Chinese being neither consulted nor informed) on trade and a definition of the frontier between India and Tibet in the tribal territory to the north of Assam (the MacMahon Line).

These arrangements were in breach of the Anglo-Russian agreement of 1907, and a release to cover them was sought from Russia. This difficulty disappeared when, in 1917, the Communist Government in Russia repudiated all the international engagements of the tsars, and when, in 1921, the 1907 Treaty was cancelled by agreement.

From 1910 onwards, the British Government treated Tibet as a de facto independent state with which treaty relations existed. From 1921 onwards, they were periodically represented by a diplomatic officer at Lhasa, and were permanently so represented from the early-1930s. In 1920, after a futile attempt to settle Tibetan issues with China, Curzon, then Foreign Secretary, told the Chinese Government that since 1912 Britain had treated Tibet as de facto independent, and would continue to do so. Britain was, however, ready to recognise China's suzerainty over Tibet, provided that China accepted Tibet's autonomy. This the Chinese never did, and so the offer to recognise China's suzerainty remained contingent. Nor did the British regard the concept of suzerainty as limiting Tibet's ability to conduct her own external relations, or as more

than a sop for saving China's face. The Tibetans never accepted the idea of suzerainty after China rejected the Simla Convention.

In 1943, the Chinese foreign minister asked Anthony Eden how Britain regarded the status of Tibet, and was given an answer similar to Curzon's statement of 1921: that the British Government "had always been prepared to recognise Chinese suzerainty over Tibet, but only on the understanding that Tibet is regarded as autonomous" (Memorandum from Sir Anthony Eden to the Chinese foreign minister, T.V. Soong, 05/08/43, FO371/93001).

In the same year, the British Embassy in Washington wrote to the US Government, stating: "The Government of India has always held that Tibet is a separate country in the full enjoyment of local autonomy, entitled to exchange diplomatic representatives with other powers. The relationship between Tibet and China is not a matter that can be decided unilaterally by China, but one on which Tibet is entitled to negotiate, and on which she can, if necessary, count on the diplomatic support of the British Government along the lines shown above."

With the transfer of power to the two new dominions of India and Pakistan, Britain's direct political concern with Tibet ended, along with the cessation of her responsibility for the defence of India. One might, however, expect any British Government to be concerned on general historical grounds at China's military seizure of Tibet in 1950, and her brutal treatment of the Tibetan people for four decades.

' Note: Written by Sir Algemon Rumbold, President of the Tibet Society of the UK 1977- 1988, for TSG UK.

All attempts to discuss Tibet are bedevilled by the Chinese redefinition of the country's borders since 194:9. Here the term Tibet is used to refer to the three original provinces of U'Tsang, Kham and Amdo (sometimes called Greater Tibet). When the Chinese refer to Tibet they invariably mean the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) which includes only one province, U'Tsang (the TAR was formally inaugurated in 1965). In 1949 the other two provinces, Amdo and Kham, were renamed by the Chinese as parts of China proper and became the province of Qinghai and parts of Sichuan, Gansu and Yunnan provinces.